Israel’s most sweeping strikes on Iran in decades have rattled the Middle East and revived an old question: Can air power alone halt Tehran’s march toward the bomb, or will it push the Islamic Republic to accelerate its program underground?
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| Inside Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility. (Photo: AP) |
A Three-Day Surge of Firepower
Over a 72-hour span, Israeli warplanes and drones hammered three pillars of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure:
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Natanz — the heart of Iran’s enrichment effort — lost power, knocking an undisclosed number of its 14,000 centrifuges out of action. An Israeli official said preliminary imagery suggests parts of the vast underground hall “may be gone,” a claim U.N. inspectors have not yet verified.
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Isfahan, Iran’s central-desert research hub, saw four buildings leveled, two of which were integral to weapons-grade component production. Experts estimate it could take Tehran up to a year to rebuild — if it doesn’t have hidden spares.
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Fordow, a bunker burrowed deep into a mountain near Qom, suffered what analysts believe was a strike on its main entrance. But without U.S.-made bunker-buster bombs, Israel is unlikely to have pierced the reinforced cavern where high-grade enrichment continues.
Israel also confirmed the targeted killings of ten senior Iranian nuclear scientists, a move Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says will “set Iran back by years.
How Much Damage Is Enough?
Outside experts are skeptical. Richard Nephew, a former U.S. negotiator on Iran, warns that Fordow remains the “crown jewel” of the program. “If you worry about a nuclear detonation someday, Fordow is the core,” he told reporters.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, calculates that Iran’s existing cache of highly enriched uranium could yield nine warheads in a month and up to 13 in two months if centrifuges at Fordow stay online. “Destroying hardware is only half the battle; you have to neutralize the stockpile,” he said.
The Stockpile Problem
Israeli intelligence officials say recent signals suggest Iran has begun dispersing uranium barrels across multiple sites, complicating any effort to wipe out its reserves in a single blow. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been barred from some facilities since 2023, leaving the world guessing how much material is truly at risk.
Risks of an Underground Arms Race
Sima Shine, a former head of research at Israel’s Mossad spy agency, calls this moment a strategic coin-flip. “If we fail to cripple the program now, we may hand Tehran the political cover to rush a bomb in secret,” she said. “That is the nightmare scenario.”
Iran insists its program is purely peaceful and denies any move toward nuclear weapons. Privately, however, Iranian officials concede that the strikes might force them to spread critical equipment even further underground, where satellite imagery — and most conventional munitions — cannot reach.
What Comes Next?
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Verification: IAEA inspectors are seeking access to assess the real damage at Natanz and Isfahan.
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Deterrence versus Escalation: Israeli pilots remain on alert for a second wave if Fordow resumes full production.
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Diplomacy on Ice: With talks frozen and tempers high, Washington and European capitals have little leverage left to restore inspections or curb enrichment.
For now, Israel claims a tactical win. Yet with Fordow still humming and Iran’s uranium stockpile intact, the strategic verdict is far from certain — and the region braces for what could be a long and dangerous endgame.
MilitaryTech
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